Exercise your franchise

My ballot arrived in the mail today. Will be taken to a ballot drop box tomorrow.

My home state of Washington has an excellent voting system. Since 2012 it has been 100% vote-by-mail, and I'd presumed the participation rates had jumped a lot from the before-times to the current system, but it's not as much as I thought.

Going by voting-eligible population (everyone who legally could be registered to vote if they wanted to be), we used to be in the 55-60% neighborhood; since the switch we've been 66%, 66%, and 75% (national figures those years were 58%, 59%, and 66%). Better, to be sure, but still not great.

Measured by registered voters, it looks better, of course—81%, 79%, and 84% in 2012, 2016, and 2020 respectively—but all that really tells me is that around 15-20% of people interested enough to be registered don't bother, which is also frustrating. This is a state that makes it super easy to register, too. You can even do it online. Even if you wait until election day itself, you can still register in person.

So with very few impediments, even in high-participation 2020, almost 600,000 Washingtonians who could vote didn't. Bummer. We're not a swing state, which may account for some of the non-votes. Going by midterm turnout, which drops 10-20%, and off-year turnout, which tends to be about half, POTUS is what gets a lot of folks to bother and some people (I've known a few) think it's pointless because of the electoral college.

Yes, yes, the electoral college sucks; it exists because of slavery and the only times it could have justified its existence as some have described it—a bulwark against corrupt processes and a dangerous candidate achieving office—it failed. It gave us Trump, G.W. Bush, and the Rutherford B. Hayes mess. (Which, come to think of it, are only failures if your metric of success is the greater good for the country; given why the thing was created in the first place, as all three times the anti-equality/protect-the-monied candidate became President, it actually kinda worked as designed.) The sooner it gets consigned to the dustbin of history the better. But until then, we work with what we've got.

Even in less-critical times, I'd be encouraging everyone who can to vote. I have done, to the point of annoyance in a couple of cases. Last time around, I was a lot more emphatic because the stakes were so much higher than they'd ever been. And this year, the stakes are just as high if not higher than in 2020.

We have it easy here in Washington. We don't have to wait in line, or face "polling place monitors," or prove our citizenship if we have an accent or our last name is something like Fernández. Our legislature isn't actively trying to purge us from the registration rolls or eliminating polling locations or allowing armed thugs to guard ballot boxes. So it may sound hollow from me, here in the easy-peasy Pacific Northwest, but no matter what state you live in, please, for the sake of everyone you know, the country, and the planet itself, vote. And vote for Kamala Harris. Not a third-party, not a "protest vote," and certainly not for the fascist Republicans—this time the margin needs to be as large as possible, electoral college or not. We need to break records here. I want to see a spread in the popular vote that beats Nixon's and Lyndon Johnson's. I want to see better-than-Coolidge numbers, people!

I realize everyone who visits here is likely already on board with this, so maybe share the sentiment with your own circles and encourage them to share with their circles. (Kind of like a pyramid scheme, I guess, but for good instead of evil.) I don't fully understand the people that pay no attention to government and politics, but they're out there and there's a ton of them. We have 600,000 could-but-don't voters here, for crying out loud.

These people need to be told that the lifestyle they currently enjoy, where they can go about their lives without giving a damn about government and politics, will go away in a hurry if this election goes badly. Quoting "JojoFromJerz":

None of us will be safe under a second Trump term. Not his supporters. Not his minions. Not his family. No one. He doesn’t have the capacity to consider anyone else’s safety but his own, let alone the collective of the American people. Far worse than that though, is the fact that there isn’t a human being on the planet, other than Putin anyway, whose life he wouldn’t trade for his own benefit.

Again, none of this is stuff we have to guess at.

He wanted to shoot protesters in the legs. Wanted to shoot migrants.

He put kids in motherfucking cages.

What he could and likely would do while surrounded with yes men and handed a blank check to bludgeon would be worse than anything we’ve ever known.

I for one ain’t sticking around for any of that shit.

So, let’s make sure he loses shall we?

Let’s vote like our lives depend on it.

Because they very much fucking do.

This is my best estimate of where things stand tonight, electoral-college-wise. With enough work, I think we can get at least five of those tan states and maybe even one of the pink ones to turn blue. Let's make it happen.

Tagged Politics, Kamala Harris   |   Posted on October 18, 2024 at 2:26am   |   Permalink   |     |  

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Demolition derby

I had umpiring to do last night, so it wasn't until the wee hours of this morning that I finished watching last night's debate between VP Kamala Harris and convicted felon F*%face VonClownstick. It wasn't perfect, there were things I was disappointed not to see, and of course I spent too much energy yelling at the TV when the man in the swirly combover was spewing bullshit at us. (So much so that about ten minutes in I got a text message from my neighbor downstairs asking, "catching up on the debate?" followed by a screaming emoji. I toned it down after that because she's one of these freakish morning people who goes to bed early.)

Although I don't think it started out strong for anyone, by maybe 20 minutes into it I was starting to feel like this was going to be a game-changer in a good way. The vice-president brought the goods and delivered some effective smackdowns while also elucidating sound policy on a number of topics, all the while getting so far under the convicted felon's skin that by the end he was almost screaming into his mic in a barely-contained rage.

I'm anxious to see new polling in a week or so to see how this will change the state of the campaign. But for now I'm pleased that the event generated quite a few potential video clips for use in ads, showed the viewership that Kamala Harris is a calm and collected person with plenty of smarts and savvy, and provided such a clear contrast between sane and small-d democratic vs. unhinged delusional nutjob.

These are my two favorite bits from the event. The first is VP Harris forcefully rebutting the absurd claim that "everybody wanted" Roe v. Wade overturned:

 

 

And this is Harris schooling her opponent on Ukraine and NATO:

 

 

What I wished for and didn't get—and for which there was a teed-up opportunity, a hanging "hit me" curve taken for a strike—was for someone, either a moderator or Harris, to either ask Trump how tariffs work or simply point out that even after being president for four years and enacting several, Trump has no understanding of what tariffs are. He seems to genuinely believe that imposing a 20% tariff on, say, Chinese goods means that China pays a fee equal to 20% of what they sell to American companies. Even though when he had his little "trade war" with China no such money was collected because THAT'S NOT HOW TARIFFS WORK. I want someone, somewhere, on camera, to corner this idiot into explaining how he thinks tariffs work. He's basing his entire economic policy, such as it is, on massive tariffs on imported goods and he doesn't understand what that means. The topic did come up, but it was the vice-president that raised it and called it a proposed "Trump sales tax," which is what it would effectively be; when Mango Mussolini responded it was just to spout his idiocy that "other countries will pay" and he wasn't challenged on it before things moved on.

Just for clarification to any who need it: A tariff is a fee imposed on AMERICAN BUSINESSES that import whatever product the tariff is targeting, and those businesses pass the fee along to the end consumer in the form of raised retail pricing. The intention is to discourage the purchase of foreign goods when the government would prefer similar American-made goods have greater market share, so American manufacturing is boosted and American labor is used for those specific goods Americans purchase. The foreign option is still available, it's just more expensive TO AMERICANS as a deterrent. (In practice, American manufacturers sometimes raise their own prices to match, thus defeating the purpose.) The foreign manufacturer may be hurt by decreased export sales—or not, if they make up the sales by exporting elsewhere—but they pay NOTHING to the United States. If a tariff is placed on a type of product that doesn't have a similar American-made analogue, or products that American manufacturing can't scale to, it amounts to nothing more than self-generated inflation. 

Another thing I wanted to hear more about was Trump's call for deportation camps, but I get why that wasn't a focus; immigration was Trump's go-to whenever he felt like he needed to change the subject, which was often, so no need to give it more oxygen.

Anyway, it was a good night for the campaign and I eagerly await evidence in the coming weeks of how/if it moved the needle for the electorate. I mean, how this even remotely a close race I can't fathom.

Tagged Politics, President VonClownstick, Kamala Harris   |   Posted on September 11, 2024 at 6:27pm   |   Permalink   |     |  

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We're Not Going Back

I designed the above as a bumper sticker and ordered a couple dozen of them. If you want one, let me know.

I did this because I'm psyched. Like I said before, I did not expect Joe Biden dropping out of the race to result in a non-chaos nightmare, but boy am I glad to be wrong on that one.

Kamalamentom is a real thing, it seems, and I absolutely love the choice of Tim Walz as her running mate. Walz is a relatable guy, military background as well as Congressional and statewide executive experience, and maybe best of all, a public school teacher. As Rachel Maddow put it the other day (paraphrasing), knowing how to handle a high school cafeteria food fight will be a useful skill when dealing with Republicans in Congress.

The pair of them are inspiring, and they have ex-President VonClownstick flailing and melting down. It's got me feeling more optimistic than ever that we'll avoid the headlong dive into authoritarian dictatorship that, though it remains a real possibility, seems more remote.

I heard about the video below—a PSA for a new Minnesota law a few years back restricting cell phone usage while driving—when listening to a recent episode of the Bob Cesca Show, so I went and looked for it on YouTube. I enjoyed it a lot, I think it shows so much of Tim Walz's humor and midwestern charm and "America's Dad" personality that will be a delight on the campaign trail. Please to enjoy.

 

 

Tagged Politics, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz   |   Posted on August 10, 2024 at 12:50am   |   Permalink   |     |  

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Biden's latest mammoth success

What a difference a day makes.

All day Sunday and well into Monday I remained fretful. Afraid of the chaos and catastrophe that would result from a free-for-all at the Democratic Convention, wary of the media shitstorm that would drive and promote said chaos leading up to the convention, bracing for the Republican exploitation of all that chaos. It had the potential for unparalleled disaster considering the stakes of this year's election.

But by late yesterday most of my agitation was gone. My anxiety receded to a normal, healthy level of "WTF??!!!" regarding national politics in this time of Republicans becoming full-on fascists.

All thanks to Joe Biden.

Not because the president stepped aside and ended his reelection campaign, but because of how he did it. In a masterstroke of irony, President Biden did what few if any other leaders could do, successfully herded cats throughout the Democratic party and turned what he undoubtedly felt was an unfair, outsized, irrational betrayal by, if not party leadership then the American electorate, into a feat of political deftness that once again may have saved the country from fascism and a failing press corps.

I realize this is largely based in suppositions, but I have to believe this or something very close to this is true: Perhaps a week ago, likely just after he did the interview with Lester Holt on NBC, the president met with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Schumer somehow convinced him that key states were so greatly at risk, and that downballot races were so greatly at risk, that we'd be balancing on a knife's edge all the way through election day and that even if the president prevailed, the Senate would be lost to the fascists. Over the next few days, President Biden considered this information, consulted with the vice-president and his inner circle, and proceeded to work on a deal with the Democratic Party leaders. He would drop out of the race for renomination if and only if everyone got behind Vice President Harris right away. There was to be no open convention, no more infighting, no more of the crap that fed the irresponsible reportage that we've been swimming in. If the people who were allegedly considering getting into the race agreed not to run, if everyone in leadership would endorse Kamala Harris, and do it with time to spare before the pre-convention official nomination that needs to happen to counter Republican legal fuckery in Ohio and maybe a couple of other states, then he would agree to step aside. If not, he was in it to the end, because chaos would help Trump win way more than Biden being the nominee would.

The agreement was reached, and the president kept his final decision to himself from probably Tuesday or Wednesday of last week. Then he kept quiet until the Republican convention of autocratic fanboys and fangirls and cultists concluded, finally informing everyone at once on Sunday afternoon. Allowing a brief interval to pass while people reacted to the bombshell, he then released the statement throwing his full unequivocal support to Vice President Harris.

And what do you know, as the hours passed, Harris was endorsed by more and more Democratic leaders. Biden delegates in state after state pledged themselves to the VP. By the end of yesterday, Harris had the enthusiastic support of a healthy majority of the delegates needed to win the nomination.

Democrats are a so-called "big tent" party. We welcome all sorts, pretty much anyone who's supportive of the U.S. Constitution, which means there's lots of disagreement within. It's always a mess to get through a primary season when there's no incumbent running and there is always a faction that won't support the eventual nominee because reasons. I have to think that, without Joe Biden's skills and experience in politics, this transition to Vice President Harris would have been a clusterfrak.

Joe came through for us. Again. Despite (and because of!) the way he was treated by the press, by some of his own party, and by voters who claimed—without backing the claim up—he had zero chance to win reelection even though his has been the single most accomplished administration in a generation or more. (And, as was pointed out by Lawrence O'Donnell last night, done with a degree of difficulty neither LBJ or FDR had to face given the makeup of Congress then and now.)

I still believe Biden would have won in November, but now we'll never know. I also think Kamala Harris is fantastic, that she is a formidable candidate that can and will win by a much larger margin.

I didn't want Joe to drop out. He deserves better. But I'm pleased with how things have turned out so far and anticipate a very fine Harris presidency.

Tagged President Biden, Democrats, Kamala Harris   |   Posted on July 23, 2024 at 3:16pm   |   Permalink   |     |  

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Now what?

Well, I didn't see that coming.

Really. I did not think I was wrong when I said Joe Biden isn't going anywhere. But clearly I was, because just before I left for my umpiring shift today he ended his campaign for reelection.

Not much news has broken yet, just the official statement of his withdrawal from the race and an endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee. Plus word that several Democratic leaders have also endorsed Harris.

What made Joe change his mind? We may learn that at some point, we may not. I mean, we'll get a rationale sometime this week, I imagine, but I wonder if it will be real or just sanitized for public consumption. Was the president truly convinced this was the best move, or was he essentially forced into it by moneyed interests? Was it just due to polling? If it was simply polling data, then shame on the Democratic Party; the polling is janky and incomplete to say the least, and is more an indictment of the party apparatus' failure to break through the noise and bullshit in what passes for news media these days.

I hope, and I suspect, that President Biden made it a condition of his agreeing to step aside that all the party mucketymucks get behind Harris, that the alternative candidate possibilities that have been thrown around—Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, House and Senate leaders—promise not to run and fuck things up. That the condition for his agreeing to not run is the infighting stops. NOW.

It was not so much the president's debate performance that killed his candidacy as it was the subsequent freakout and colossally irresponsible corporate press obsessing over the freakout and ignoring the Republican promises to turn this country into an autocratic despotism. The people freaking out and the press seem to want chaos, as infighting sells newspapers (or their digital equivalents) and generates ratings on cable news, and the last thing we need now is chaos at next month's Democratic Convention. Assuming the decision was not, in fact, based on a legitimate and specific health issue, I have to imagine that President Biden is pretty pissed off right now.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez posted a lengthy video on Friday warning against pushing Biden aside because of the logistics, the fact that the primary is over, and the fact that Republicans will exploit any chaos that results not just politically but legally, possibly finding ways for critical state ballot decisions to make their way to the six corrupt apostates on the Roberts Supreme Court. Her arguments are basically the same as the ones I've tried to make, and are why I am now freaking out when I wasn't before.

If there is chaos, we're in serious trouble. If it is a smooth, conflict-free (relatively; I mean, we are Democrats) transition to Vice President Harris atop the ticket, then things might start to look good again. But until the convention is over in a few weeks I will be metaphorically biting my nails and spastically twitching now and again in anticipation of a supreme self-inflicted fuckup that ends the country.

 

 

Tagged Politics, President Biden, Democrats, Kamala Harris, AOC   |   Posted on July 21, 2024 at 8:03pm   |   Permalink   |     |  

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